Tuesday, January 4, 2011

Israeli Economics 101, Introduction, 2011

Yesterday, I was required to drive into and out of Tel Aviv during rush hour, and even without accidents, traffic was horrific. Given my impatience, I was driven mad by the congestion; however, I was also consoled by the thought that there is no better indication of torrid economic growth. (For those of you who have spent time in Turkey, recall traffic in and out of Istanbul before and after the 2000-2001 Turkish financial crisis.) Spurred by hi-tech, the Israeli economy was barely grazed by the worldwide financial crisis of 2007-2010, which saw the collapse of household-name financial institutions, plummeting stock market prices, and soaring unemployment. Israeli unemployment has steadily fallen from 10.7% in 2005 to some 7.0% in 2010, with the Bank of Israel predicting 6.7% unemployment in 2011.

Another indication of Israel's buoyant economy? The average shekel-dollar exchange rate in 2005 was NIS 4.4878/$. This morning, the shekel-dollar exchange rate was NIS 3.5297/$.

If you wish to learn more about the Israeli hi-tech miracle, buy a copy of George Gilder's excellent book, "The Israel Test". On a more personal, micro level, those who read this blog are familiar with prior posts expressing my thrill at being able to work as an outside consultant for Compugen, which aims to be the world leader in the discovery and licensing of product candidates to the drug and diagnostic industry (see: http://jgcaesarea.blogspot.com/search/label/Compugen), and for Nano Retina, which is developing an ultra small bionic retina designed to restore sight to those suffering from retinal degenerative diseases (see: http://jgcaesarea.blogspot.com/search/label/Nano%20Retina).

Now add to this ebullient mixture the recent discovery of significant natural gas reserves some 81 miles off Israel's coast, which potentially could transform tiny Israel into a natural gas exporting nation (see: http://www.jpost.com/NationalNews/Article.aspx?id=201439). The gas reserves, estimated to be worth more than $95 billion, comprise the largest amount of natural gas discovered in the world in the last decade.

A fly (or flies) in the ointment? Always.

As reported in a Jerusalem Post article entitled "1 in 5 Israeli families turned to social services in 2009" (http://www.jpost.com/NationalNews/Article.aspx?id=202285) by Ruth Eglash, Israel also has its share of needy and underprivileged persons:

"More than 433,000 families, or one in every five Israeli households, received help from social welfare services in 2009, marking a dramatic increase over the past decade, the Welfare and Social Services Ministry reported on Tuesday.

. . . .

Difficulties parenting or behavioral problems with youth accounted for 35.2 percent of all case files; poverty or unemployment made up 34.4%; 33.3% dealt with elderly people considered at risk; while disabilities, both mental and physical, comprised 31.9% of case files."

In addition, Hamas continues to fire Qassam rockets at southern Israeli communities with increasing regularity (concerning yesterday's incident, see: http://www.jpost.com/Defense/Article.aspx?id=202271), and peace talks with the Palestinian Authority on the West Bank are stalled.

On the other hand, one cannot help but notice Israeli/Palestinian symbiosis on the West Bank. The Palestinian Authority is quietly permitting Palestinians to work on Israeli West Bank construction projects (http://www.haaretz.com/print-edition/news/pa-lightens-ban-on-working-in-settlements-to-ease-palestinian-unemployment-1.333439), while hiring Israeli construction companies to assist in the building of Rawabi, 20 miles north of Jerusalem, the West Bank's first modern Palestinian city (http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/israeli-companies-to-help-build-first-modern-palestinian-city-1.333751).

Never entirely logical. Never a dull moment.

[As noted in prior blog entries, I am a Compugen shareholder, this blog entry is not a recommendation to buy or sell Compugen shares, and in mid-September 2009 I began work as a part-time external consultant to Compugen. The opinions expressed herein are mine and are based on publicly available information. This blog entry has not been authorized or approved by Compugen.]

1 comment:

  1. Just want to echo your words about George Gelder's "The Israel Test" --excellent read both for content and style.

    Unfortunately, still too many ordinary Joes still think that Hamas is a dip you eat with pita. Ignorance does not make for bliss.

    ReplyDelete