Thursday, April 26, 2012

Did Israel's Chief of Staff Say Iran Won't Build an Atomic Bomb? Answer: No

Have a look at the headlines today. The home page of The New York Times features an article captioned "Israeli Army Chief Says He Believes Iran Won’t Build Bomb" (http://www.nytimes.com/2012/04/26/world/middleeast/israeli-army-chief-says-he-believes-iran-wont-build-bomb.html). The current lead online article of The Washington Post bears the headline "Israeli military chief: Iran will not build nuclear bomb" (http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/israeli-military-chief-iran-will-not-build-nuclear-bomb/2012/04/25/gIQAQihahT_story.html?hpid=z1). Both of these articles base their stories upon an article in the left-leaning Israeli newspaper Haaretz, whose headline reads "IDF chief to Haaretz: I do not believe Iran will decide to develop nuclear weapons" (http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/idf-chief-to-haaretz-i-do-not-believe-iran-will-decide-to-develop-nuclear-weapons-1.426389).

But did Israeli Chief of Staff, Lt. Gen. Benny Gantz, actually say, "I do not believe Iran will decide to develop nuclear weapons"?

Read the Haaretz article and tell me where Gantz specifically says "I do not believe Iran will decide to develop nuclear weapons." You only find it in the headline.

What did Gantz say in his interview with Haaretz?:

• "We're in a period when something must happen: Either Iran takes its nuclear program to a civilian footing only or the world, perhaps we too, will have to do something."
• "The military option is the last chronologically but the first in terms of its credibility. If it's not credible it has no meaning. We are preparing for it in a credible manner."
• Iran "is going step by step to the place where it will be able to decide whether to manufacture a nuclear bomb. It hasn't yet decided whether to go the extra mile."
• "If the supreme religious leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei wants, he will advance [the development program] to the acquisition of a nuclear bomb, but the decision must first be taken. It will happen if Khamenei judges that he is invulnerable to a response."
• "I believe he would be making an enormous mistake, and I don't think he will want to go the extra mile. I think the Iranian leadership is composed of very rational people. But I agree that such a capability, in the hands of Islamic fundamentalists who at particular moments could make different calculations, is dangerous."

Where in any of this does Gantz declare that Iran won't build the bomb? He tells us that Iran is moving its nuclear weapons development program ahead step by step, and something must soon happen. He tells us that Khamenei will give instructions to build the bomb if he feels "invulnerable to a response." He tells us that the Iranian leadership is "rational," and that it would be a mistake for them to build the bomb, given that Israel is prepared to intervene. Nowhere in any of this does he say that Iran won't build the bomb.

Given that Iran's leadership is "rational," it would not be wise to build the bomb, particularly in light of Gantz's warning that Israel is prepared to respond, but since when do "rational" people not make mistakes? Also, as Gantz observes, if a "rational" Khamenei feels "invulnerable," e.g., reaches the determination that Obama has no plans to intervene, he will proceed with the bomb's development.

Where in the the Haaretz article does Gantz say Iran won't build the bomb? He doesn't.

1 comment:

  1. OK, it's so bad that I have to develop new habits after decades of starting my day with checking the NYT. Breaking of any bad habit isn't easy, but I know I can do it. Wish me luck.

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